Wednesday, February 06, 2013
Israel Fuels Syrian Fire, Risking Regional Outburst
By Nicola Nasser**
The timing of the Israeli air raid
early on January 30 on a Syrian target, that has yet to be identified,
coincided with a hard to refute indications that the “regime change” in Syria
by force, both by foreign military intervention and by internal armed
rebellion, has failed, driving the Syrian opposition in exile to opt
unwillingly for “negotiations” with the ruling regime, with the blessing of the
U.S., EU and Arab League, concluding, in the words of a Deutsche Welle report
on this February 2, that “nearly two years since the revolt began, (Syrian
President Bashar Al-) Assad is still sitting comfortably in presidential
chair.”
Nonetheless, Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu keeps saying that Israel is preparing for “dramatic
changes” in Syria, but senior Israeli foreign ministry officials accused him of
“fear-mongering on Syria” to justify his ordering what the Russians described
as the “unprovoked” raid, according to The Times of Israel on January 29. Another
official told the Israeli Maariv that no Israeli “red lines” were crossed with
regard to the reported chemical weapons in Syria Damascus Syria Syria Syria Syria itself keeps repeating, and “there is no
particular reason why Israel
is to be believed and Syria
More likely Israel is either
trying to escalate militarily to embroil an unwilling United States in the
Syrian conflict, in a too late attempt to pre-empt a political solution, out of
a belief that the fall of the Al – Assad regime will serve Israel’s strategy,
according to the former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, (Major
general, reserve) Amos Yaldin, or to establish for itself a seat at any
international negotiating table that might be detrimental in shaping a future
regime in Syria.
Escalating
militarily at a time of political de-escalation of the military solution in Syria will not secure a seat for Israel
The Israeli military intervention
at this particular timing fuels a Syrian fire that has recently started to look
for firefighters among the growing number of the advocates of dialogue,
negotiations and political solutions both nationally, regionally and
internationally.
The escalating humanitarian crisis and the rising death
toll in Syria
With the legitimate Syrian government gaining the upper
hand militarily on the ground, the inability of the rebels to “liberate” even
one city, town or enough area in the countryside to be declared a “buffer zone”
or to host the self-proclaimed leadership of opposition in exile, which failed
during the Paris – hosted “Friends of Syria” meeting on January 28 to agree on
a “government – in – exile,” more likely because of this very reason, the
second option of a political solution is left as the only way forward and as the
only way out of the bloodshed and the snowballing humanitarian crisis.
The Israeli raid sends a message that the military option
could yet be pursued. The rebels who based their overall strategy on a foreign
military intervention have recently discovered that the only outside
intervention they were able to get was from the international network of
al-Qaeda and the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood. No
surprise then that the frustrated Syrian rebels are loosing ground, momentum
and morale.
An Israeli military intervention would undoubtedly revive
their morale, but temporarily, because it does not potentially guarantee that
it will succeed in improving their chances where failure doomed the collective
efforts of all the “Friends of Syria,” whose numbers dwindled over time from
more than one hundred nations about two years ago to about fifty in their last
meeting in Paris.
Such intervention would only promise more of the same,
prolonging the military conflict, shedding more of Syrian blood, exacerbating
the humanitarian crisis, multiplying the numbers of those displaced inside the
country and the Syrian refugees abroad, postponing an inevitable political
solution, and significantly rallying more Syrians in support of the ruling
regime in defending their country against the Israeli occupier of their Syrian
Golan heights, thus isolating the rebels by depriving them from whatever
support their terrorist tactics have left them.
More importantly however, such an Israeli intervention risks a
regional outburst if not contained by the world community or if it succeeds in
inviting a reciprocal Syrian retaliation. Both Syrians and Israelis were on
record in the aftermath of the Israeli raid that the bilateral “rules of
engagement” have already changed.
All the “Friends of Syria” have
been on record that they were doing all they could to enforce a “buffer zone”
inside Syria; they tried to create it through Turkey in northern Syria, through
Jordan in the south, through Lebanon in the west and on the borders with Iraq
in the east, but they failed to make it materialize. They tried to enforce it
by a resolution from the UN Security Council, but their efforts were aborted
three times by a dual Russian – Chinese veto. They tried, unsuccessfully so
far, to enforce it outside the
jurisdiction of the United Nations by arming an internal rebellion, publicly on
the payroll of Qatar and Saudi Arabia, logistically supported by Turkey and the
U.S., British, French and German intelligence services and spearheaded mainly
by the al-Qaeda – linked Al-Nusra
Front, a rebellion focusing on the peripheral areas sharing borders with
Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon, after the failure of an early attempt to make
the western Syrian port city of Latakia on the Mediterranean play the role the
city of Benghazi played in the Libyan “change of regime.”
Now, Israel
On February 3, British “The Sunday
Times” reported that Israel is considering creating a buffer zone reaching up
to ten miles inside Syria, modelled on a similar zone it created in southern
Lebanon in 1985 from which it was forced to withdraw unconditionally by the
Hezbullah – led and Syrian and Iranian – supported Lebanese resistance in 2000.
Israeli mainstream daily Maariv (“evening” in Hebrew) the next day confirmed
the Times report, adding the zone would be created in cooperation with
local Arab villages on the Syrian side of the UN-monitored buffer zone, which
was created on both sides of the armistice line after the 1973 Israeli – Syrian
war.
UN observers monitoring the zone
number about one thousand. An “Israeli officer” told a Mcclatchy reporter on
last November 14 that the rebels in the zone are “fewer than 1,000 fighters.” Canada withdrew its contingent of monitors last
September; Japan
The 1974 armistice agreement
prohibits the Syrian government from engaging in military activity within the
buffer zone; if it does it would risk a military confrontation with Israel and, according to Moshe Maoz,
professor emeritus at Jerusalem 's Hebrew University ,
“The Syrian army doesn't have any interest in provoking Israel ,” because “Syria
However it would be anybody’s guess to
know for how long Syria
could tolerate turning the UN monitored demilitarized buffer zone, with Israeli
closed eyes, into a terrorist safe haven and into a corridor of supply linking
the rebels in Lebanon to
their “brethren” in southern Syria
Ironically, Israel cites the presence of those same rebels
along the borders of the Israeli – occupied Golan Heights as the pretext to
justify “considering creating a buffer zone” inside Syria
* Nicola Nasser is a veteran Arab journalist based in Bir
Zeit, West Bank of the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories.
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