Friday, August 23, 2013
Egypt’s Foreign Relations on Tightrope
By Nicola Nasser*
The internal crisis in Egypt has indulged the country in
its most critical foreign relations test since these relations were shaped by
the U.S. sponsored Camp David accords and the peace treaty with Israel in 1979.
An indicator is the warnings against travel to Egypt Egypt Egypt U.S.
military’s participation in next month’s Operation Bright Star in Egypt Egypt
by the U.S.
In the immediate proximity, and three days after the
ouster of the elected president Mohammed Morsi on July 3, the Peace and Security Council of the fifty – four member
African Union decided “to suspend the participation of Egypt
On August 20,
South Africa, a leading member of the AU as well as the BRICS five – member
association, issued a statement to remind the “interim government” in Cairo
that its “principled position is based on the Constitutive Act of the African
Union, where any unconstitutional change of government – whatever the premise –
is specifically rejected” immediately.
So far, the AU reaction is ironically the
only concrete international diplomatic measure taken in defense of the western
widely trumpeted rule of law and democracy. The African “sphere” is
traditionally only second to the Arab one as a cornerstone of Egypt
However, Denmark
announced the suspension of aid to Egypt Egypt Egypt
Most likely the U.S. allies’ final
reaction will wait until the U.S. administration ends its open –ended stance,
but while U.S. allies follow in its footsteps, the U.S. rival world powers
grudgingly dealt with the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) as the
leaders of the “Arab Spring” changes in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya as a
fait accompli; the removal of the Egyptian MB from power is a welcome
development.
Ahead of their meeting in Brussels Egypt ,
but, like the U.S.
The EU and its member states last year
pledged a combined 5 billion euros ($6.7 billion) in loans and aid for Egypt
Meanwhile, Russia
and China are waiting on the
sidelines to invest in what could evolve into a historical turning point in Egypt
The Kremlin maintained what a writer in
“Asia Times” described as a “stony silence,” until August 19 when the foreign
ministry in a statement urged “dialogue” among “all” political players “without
any foreign interference,” but the Egyptian embassy in Moscow
said that Cairo counts on Russia
In 2010 the volume of trade and
economic cooperation between the two countries amounted to $2.1 billion. The number of Russian tourists visiting Egypt in 2010 alone was estimated to be
2,855,723, making it the number one country in providing Egypt
Similarly China Egypt
Unofficially, Wang
Jilie, an academic with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a State Council
affiliated think tank, said that the Egyptian military “had no choice” but to
“control the situation,” otherwise “the credibility of the interim government and the military
would be undermined.”
In 2011, Sino-Egyptian trade rose
to US$8.8 billion, a 30 percent increase from 2010, according to Xinhua. Last year it rose to US$9.5 billion.
Short of designating the ouster and detention of Morsi a
“coup” and short of condemning the dispersal on August 14, by what critics
described as an “excessive use of force,” of two MB – led sit – ins in Cairo’s Raba’a
al- Adawiyah and al-Nahdha squares, as an Egyptian copy of the Chinese “Tiananmen Square” in 1989, the un-decisive United
States has put itself and Egypt in their most testing foreign policy dilemma.
The United States
is finding itself swaying between “cutting” its aid to Egypt and “reprogramming” it and because it is
torn between its foreign policy rhetoric of democracy and the more realistic
benefits of stability, Washington U.S.
allies are held hostage to this U.S.
The bipartisan Working
Group on Egypt , quoted by
the Washington Post on August 15, demanded a shift in U.S. policy towards Egypt
However there is a strategic U.S. Egypt expert at the London School of Economics,
John Chalcraft, had this explanation: The U.S. military aid “is a strategic
rent that comes to Egypt in
return, above all, for the ongoing Camp David Peace Treaty with Israel Egypt
No surprise then the United National Security Council
(UNSC), in its “emergency” meeting on August 15, which was urged by Turkey and jointly requested by France , Britain
and Australia , had
nothing to say more than urging the parties in Egypt
Strategically, the internal crisis in Egypt has put the U.S.
In his inauguration speech in January
2009, Obama signaled his intention to seek a fresh understanding with Islam and
Muslims. Within a few months his “intention” had unfolded as a strategy that
culminated in the end in an “understanding” with the MB, the oldest, largest
and perceived as the most moderate among the Islamist movements.
On June 4, 2009 in Cairo ,
Obama declared: “I’ve come here to Cairo to seek
a new beginning between the United
States Istanbul America
His allies in Qatar
and the Islamist leaders of the ruling Justice and Development party in Turkey joined forces and played a detrimental
role in swaying the U.S.
The MB was born in Egypt
Following the Qatari and Turkish
examples, the U.S.
With the removal of Morsi and the MB from
power in Egypt , this U.S.
The MB has received a very strong blow in
its Egyptian heartland together with a burgeoning MB – U.S.
A regional U.S.
sponsored Egyptian – Turkish – Qatari axis that could stand rival to the Iran – Syria
The U.S.
regional allies stand now divided between the pro – MB led by Qatar and Turkey
and the anti – MB led by Saudi
Arabia
The regional front against Iran of the U.S.
– sponsored “moderates,” who are united in their efforts to enforce a ‘regime
change” in Syria
While Syria
is feeling relief, Iran joined
its regional rivals in Qatar
and Turkey as well as Cuba , Venezuela ,
the U.S.
Rejecting foreign interference in “Egypt ’s internal affairs,” Saudi King Abdullah,
in a statement read Friday on Saudi television, declared that what was
happening in Egypt Paris pledged to compensate Egypt
Obviously, Saudi Arabia , UAE and Kuwait ,
who contributed $12b to Cairo the second day
Morsi was removed, do not see eye to eye on Egypt
with their strategic allies in the U.S.
Some commentators
described as “hysterical” the Turkish reaction, which led Egypt to accuse Turkey Israel Saudi Arabia Egypt and
described the developments in the country as a “conspiracy against the Muslim
world targeting Turkey
No
Business as Usual
The U.S.
This line of U.S.
thinking is creating an international environment that is fueling the MB
defiance, which would inevitably
perpetuate the violence and the crisis, the interim
government in Cairo
This is exactly what leads the U.S.
They accuse the world’s condemnation of
their “excessive use of force” as a contribution to what some of their
commentators say it is a “war of attrition” waged by the MB against the
Egyptian state, its interim government and defense forces.
More than 100 army and police officers
were among no less than one thousand people killed since July 3rd.
Michael W. Hanna, an expert on Egypt from the New York-based Century
Foundation, was quoted by AP on Monday as saying: “Sure civil war is a
possibility.”
Obviously, Egypt ’s
post – Morsi rulers do not share the U.S.
* Nicola Nasser is a veteran Arab journalist based in Birzeit,
West Bank of the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories. nassernicola@ymail.com
